NBA: Top 20 Active Players with Best Chances of Making Hall of Fame

Ten Active NBA Players on the Way to the Hall of Fame (clockwise from top left: Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Ray Allen, Jason Kidd, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki)

Take an NBA player’s career points per game and throw in average assists and rebounds. Note his All-Star Game selections and number of titles won. Account for the era he played in, and, oddly, his height.

Add some math and now you have  a formula that portends to predict which active players have the best chances of making the Basketball Hall of Fame, according to my source, basketball-reference.com. The site’s model and method is explained here.

The results are mostly obvious, but there are a few surprises.

Of course, Kobe Bryant is a shoo-in. He’s the only active with a 100% chance of becoming a Hall of Famer. But it might as well be 100% for the whole top 10. All of these guys are getting in. Chris Paul might be the questionable one here, but if the second half of his career mirrors his first, he’s in.

Players filling up Nos. 11-20, are more debatable.

Chris Bosh? Sounds crazy. I didn’t think so at first, either. But hoopsmanifesto.com makes an interesting case.

Tony Parker? I do think so. Parker has the numbers and the titles. Slamonline.com agrees.

Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard need to do more – statistically, in league leaderships and awards, and finally in championships. They have the All Star bids though.

Vince Carter, Pau Gasol, Tracy McGrady and Amar’e Stoudemire are the weakest representatives on the list. Each one, though, has a shot.

You have to believe Kevin Durant will rise way up in the rankings as the older cagers hang it up in the next few years. Durant is on his way, already with four scoring titles, four All-Star appearances, a Finals appearance and the Rookie of the Year in his first six seasons. That’s a “Wow.”

Finally, Steve Nash, one of the greatest point guards in NBA history and a back-to-back MVP media darling. Of course he’s making the trip to Springfield, Mass. What’s he doing at just 57%?

One more note on Hall of Fame eligibility – a player must be retired a full five years before making the ballot. OK – one more thing to note – the NBA is the least stringent of all the major sports in keeping players out of the Hall of Fame. Don’t be surprised if all these guys make it in.

Photos: espn.com