Blog Archives

NCAA Tournament 2015: Every School’s Odds to Win Championship

SEED SCHOOL ODDS REGION CONF. FINAL RECORD
1. Kentucky 1-1 MIDWEST SEC 34-0
1. Duke 13-2 SOUTH ACC 29-4
1. Wisconsin 13-2 WEST Big 10 31-3
1. Villanova 8-1 EAST Big East 32-2
2. Arizona 12-1 WEST Pac 12 31-3
2. Virginia 17-1 EAST ACC 29-3
2. Gonzaga 22-1 SOUTH West Coast 32-2
4. North Carolina 25-1 WEST ACC 24-11
3. Iowa State 35-1 SOUTH Big 12 25-8
3. Baylor 40-1 WEST Big 12 24-9
2. Kansas 40-1 MIDWEST Big 12 26-8
3. Notre Dame 50-1 MIDWEST ACC 29-5
5. Utah 55-1 SOUTH Pac 12 24-8
4. Maryland 60-1 MIDWEST Big 10 27-6
7. Michigan State 60-1 EAST Big 10 23-11
3. Oklahoma 60-1 EAST Big 12 22-10
6. SMU 60-1 SOUTH American 27-6
4. Louisville 80-1 EAST ACC 24-8
7. Wichita State 80-1 MIDWEST Missouri Valley 28-4
5. Northern Iowa 90-1 EAST Missouri Valley 30-3
5. West Virginia 90-1 MIDWEST Big 12 23-9
6. Butler 100-1 MIDWEST Big East 22-10
10. Ohio State 100-1 WEST Big 10 23-10
11. Texas 100-1 MIDWEST Big 12 20-13
Field (Any Other Team) 100-1
12. Buffalo 150-1 MIDWEST Mid American 23-9
4. Georgetown 175-1 SOUTH Big East 21-10
9. LSU 175-1 EAST SEC 22-10
6. Xavier 175-1 WEST Big East 21-13
5. Arkansas 200-1 WEST SEC 26-8
7. VCU 200-1 WEST Atlantic 10 26-9
10. Indiana 250-1 MIDWEST Big 10 20-13
7. Iowa 250-1 SOUTH Big 10 21-11
8. NC State 250-1 EAST ACC 20-13
11. Ole Miss 250-1 WEST SEC 20-12
6. Providence 250-1 EAST Big East 22-11
9. St Johns 250-1 SOUTH Big East 21-11
8. Cincinnati 300-1 MIDWEST American 22-10
10. Georgia 300-1 EAST SEC 21-11
14. Georgia State 300-1 WEST Sun Belt 24-9
13. Harvard 300-1 WEST Ivy 22-7
9. Oklahoma State 300-1 WEST Big 12 18-13
8. Oregon 300-1 WEST Pac 12 25-9
8. San Diego State 300-1 SOUTH Mountain West 26-8
13. UC Irvine 300-1 EAST Big West 21-12
11. UCLA 300-1 SOUTH Pac 12 20-13
12. Wofford 300-1 WEST Southern 28-6
12. Wyoming 300-1 EAST Mountain West 25-9
15. Belmont 500-1 EAST Ohio Valley 22-10
11. BYU 500-1 WEST West Coast 25-9
11. Boise State 500-1 EAST Mountain West 25-8
10. Davidson 500-1 SOUTH Atlantic 10 24-7
11. Dayton 500-1 EAST Atlantic 10 25-8
15. New Mexico State 500-1 MIDWEST WAC 23-10
9. Purdue 500-1 MIDWEST Big 10 21-12
12. Stephen F Austin 500-1 SOUTH Southland 29-4
14. Albany 1000-1 EAST American East 24-8
13. Eastern Washington 1000-1 SOUTH Big Sky 26-8
15. North Dakota State 1000-1 SOUTH Summit 23-9
14. Northeastern 1000-1 MIDWEST Colonial 23-11
14. UAB 1000-1 SOUTH C-USA 19-15
13. Valparaiso 1000-1 MIDWEST Horizon 28-5
16. North Florida 2000-1 SOUTH Atlantic Sun 23-11
16. Coastal Carolina 5000-1 WEST Big South 24-9
16. Lafayette 5000-1 EAST Patriot 20-12
16. Manhattan 5000-1 MIDWEST MAAC 19-13
16. Robert Morris 5000-1 SOUTH NEC 19-14
15. Texas Southern 5000-1 WEST SWAC 22-12
16. Hampton 9999-1 MIDWEST MEAC 16-17

2013 NCAA Tournament Championship and Final Four Opening Odds

Las Vegas Says the Louisville Cardinals Are Going To Win the 2013 NCAA Tournament

Las Vegas Says the Louisville Cardinals Are Going To Win the 2013 NCAA Tournament

These are the official 2013 NCAA Tournament Las Vegas opening odds (overall and by region/Final Four) per vegasinsider.com and the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino’s Sportsbook.

Compare them to predictions based on SRS, which we ran through yesterday. Very similar. The bookmakers have come up with the same Final Four: Louisville, Indiana, Florida and Gonzaga.

Some differences, though. Vegas has Louisville winning it all (as opposed to Indiana).

Good luck!

OVERALL  
TEAM ODDS
LOUISVILLE 9-2
INDIANA 7-1
DUKE 8-1
FLORIDA 8-1
MIAMI FL 8-1
KANSAS 10-1
GONZAGA 12-1
OHIO ST 15-1
MICHIGAN ST 18-1
MICHIGAN 18-1
GEORGETOWN 18-1
WISCONSIN 25-1
SYRACUSE 30-1
ST LOUIS 30-1
NEW MEXICO 30-1
MARQUETTE 40-1
PITTSBURGH 50-1
ARIZONA 50-1
NORTH CAROLINA 50-1
VCU 50-1
NC STATE 60-1
KANSAS ST 60-1
MISSOURI 75-1
OKLAHOMA ST 100-1
MINNESOTA 100-1
NOTRE DAME 100-1
UNLV 100-1
MEMPHIS 100-1
CREIGHTON 100-1
BUTLER 100-1
UCLA 100-1
OREGON 100-1
FIELD 150-1
ILLINOIS 200-1
COLORADO 300-1
CINCINNATI 300-1
SAN DIEGO ST 300-1
WICHITA ST 300-1
CALIFORNIA 300-1
TEMPLE 500-1
VILLANOVA 500-1
IOWA ST 500-1
COLORADO ST 500-1
OKLAHOMA 500-1
OLE MISS 500-1
ST MARY’S 1000-1
DAVIDSON 1000-1
BELMONT 1000-1
LASALLE 1000-1
BOISE ST 1000-1
   
EAST  
TEAM ODDS
INDIANA 10-11
MIAMI FL 9-4
SYRACUSE 5-1
MARQUETTE 15-1
NC STATE 20-1
UNLV 20-1
BUTLER 20-1
ILLINOIS 25-1
COLORADO 40-1
BUCKNELL 50-1
CAL 60-1
DAVIDSON 60-1
TEMPLE 75-1
PACIFIC 500-1
MONTANA 1000-1
JAMES MADISON 3000-1
LONG ISLAND 3000-1
   
MIDWEST  
TEAM ODDS
LOUISVILLE 10-11
DUKE 3-1
MICHIGAN ST 5-1
ST LOUIS 8-1
CREIGHTON 15-1
MISSOURI 20-1
OKLAHOMA ST 20-1
MEMPHIS 30-1
COLORADO ST 50-1
ST MARY’S 50-1
CINCINNATI 50-1
OREGON 60-1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST 75-1
VALPARAISO 100-1
NEW MEXICO ST 300-1
ALBANY 2000-1
NORTH CAROLINA A&T 5000-1
LIBERTY 5000-1
   
SOUTH  
TEAM ODDS
FLORIDA 7-5
KANSAS 5-2
GEORGETOWN 4-1
MICHIGAN 5-1
VCU 12-1
MINNESOTA 20-1
NORTH CAROLINA 20-1
SAN DIEGO ST 30-1
UCLA 50-1
VILLANOVA 75-1
OKLAHOMA 75-1
AKRON 75-1
SOUTH DAKOTA ST 300-1
NORTHWESTERN ST 1000-1
FLORIDA GULF COAST 1000-1
WESTERN KENTUCKY 1000-1
   
WEST  
TEAM ODDS
GONZAGA 9-4
OHIO ST 5-2
NEW MEXICO 9-2
WISCONSIN 5-1
PITTSBURGH 6-1
ARIZONA 12-1
KANSAS ST 25-1
NOTRE DAME 25-1
IOWA ST 40-1
OLE MISS 40-1
WICHITA ST 50-1
BELMONT 60-1
BOISE ST 75-1
LASALLE 100-1
HARVARD 1000-1
IONA 1000-1

Photo: cbsnews.com

2013 NCAA Tournament Rankings and Predictions: Winners, Upsets and the Final Four

The 2013 Final Four? Indiana, Florida, Louisville and Gonzaga According to SRS.

The 2013 Final Four? Indiana, Florida, Louisville and Gonzaga According to SRS.

Yesterday, Sports List of the Day leveraged sports-reference.com‘s SRS statistic (Simple Rating System) to rank the top 20 NCAA college basketball schools since the 1979-80 season.

Let’s expand the number of schools rated and apply SRS specifically to the 68 teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Below you see all schools that made the 2013 cut in two separate lists. First, ranked overall from 1-68, then broken down by the First Round head-to-head per region.

Some very interesting notions emerge.

Indiana is the favorite to win it all. The Final Four are predicted to be Indiana (1), Florida (3), Louisville (1) and Gonzaga (1), which seems quite reasonable.

Looking for upsets? Low seeds to watch out for include Pittsburgh, who is the eighth seed out West, but has the overall ninth best SRS in the tournament. Also: Wisconsin, Arizona, Creighton, Minnesota, Missouri, Cincinnati and St. Mary’s. These schools all rank in the top 25 below despite their comparatively low seeding (9-16).

Dogs? Be wary of Temple, Villanova, Memphis, Wichita State and sadly everyone’s favorite Cinderella, Butler. The Bulldogs’ time is up.

Best seeds that will go belly up? New Mexico, Kansas State, UNLV, Marquette and St. Louis.

In a tournament that is more up for grabs than any in recent memory, there should be more than the usual upsets.

We’re going to test the SRS rankings by filling out a bracket utilizing just that metric and see what happens.

Good luck!

OVERALL

RANKING SCHOOL SEED REGION SRS OVERALL SRS RANK
1. Indiana 1 EAST 25.95 1
2. Florida 3 SOUTH 24.70 2
3. Louisville 1 MIDWEST 24.29 3
4. Duke 2 MIDWEST 21.91 4
5. Gonzaga 1 WEST 21.56 5
6. Kansas 1 SOUTH 21.21 6
7. Ohio State 2 WEST 20.49 7
8. Michigan 4 SOUTH 20.22 8
9. Pittsburgh 8 WEST 19.65 9
10. Syracuse 4 EAST 19.40 10
11. Wisconsin 5 WEST 19.38 11
12. Michigan State 3 MIDWEST 18.62 12
13. Miami (FL) 2 EAST 17.18 13
14. Arizona 6 WEST 17.02 14
15. Creighton 7 MIDWEST 16.83 15
16. Georgetown 2 SOUTH 16.81 16
17. Minnesota 11 SOUTH 16.80 17
18. Virginia Commonwealth 5 SOUTH 16.50 18
19. Oklahoma State 5 MIDWEST 16.22 19
20. Missouri 9 MIDWEST 16.14 20
21. North Carolina 8 SOUTH 14.91 21
22. NC State 8 EAST 14.85 22
23. Cincinnati 10 MIDWEST 14.75 23
24. St. Mary’s (CA) 11 MIDWEST 14.73 24
25. St. Louis 4 MIDWEST 14.72 25
26. Mississippi 12 WEST 14.55 27
27. Marquette 3 EAST 14.48 28
28. Colorado State 8 MIDWEST 14.46 29
29. New Mexico 3 WEST 14.44 30
30. Notre Dame 7 WEST 14.44 31
31. Iowa State 10 WEST 13.99 33
32. San Diego State 7 SOUTH 13.98 34
33. Kansas State 4 WEST 13.82 35
34. UNLV 5 EAST 13.79 36
35. UCLA 6 SOUTH 13.73 37
36. Illinois 7 EAST 13.25 40
37. Wichita State 9 WEST 13.20 41
38. Oregon 12 MIDWEST 13.12 42
39. Memphis 6 MIDWEST 12.62 43
40. Colorado 10 EAST 12.38 44
41. Oklahoma 10 SOUTH 11.96 47
42. Middle Tennessee 11 MIDWEST 11.74 48
43. Belmont 11 WEST 11.00 50
44. Butler 6 EAST 10.99 51
45. Villanova 9 SOUTH 10.99 52
46. California 12 EAST 10.72 53
47. Boise State/La Salle 13 WEST 10.52 54
48. La Salle 13 WEST 9.98 56
49. Akron 12 SOUTH 9.72 60
50. Temple 9 EAST 9.15 67
51. Bucknell 11 EAST 7.44 75
52. Valparaiso 14 MIDWEST 7.41 76
53. Davidson 14 EAST 7.39 77
54. New Mexico State 13 MIDWEST 5.92 96
55. Iona 15 WEST 4.53 109
56. Harvard 14 WEST 3.97 117
57. Pacific 15 EAST 3.32 123
58. South Dakota State 13 SOUTH 2.59 128
59. Florida Gulf Coast 15 SOUTH 1.05 144
60. Northwestern State 14 SOUTH 0.92 147
61. Montana 13 EAST -0.34 159
62. Western Kentucky 16 SOUTH -0.84 171
63. Albany (NY) 15 MIDWEST -1.04 175
64. James Madison 16 EAST -2.10 189
65. LIU 16 EAST -2.69 197
66. Southern 16 WEST -3.02 202
67. NC A&T 16 MIDWEST -6.81 253
68. Liberty 16 MIDWEST -8.90 273

BY REGION

EAST SCHOOL SRS SRS RANKING
1. Indiana 25.95 1
16. LIU/James Madison -2.69/-2.10 197/189
8. NC State 14.85 22
9. Temple 9.15 67
5. UNLV 13.79 36
12. California 10.72 53
4. Syracuse 19.40 10
13. Montana -0.34 159
6. Butler 10.99 51
11. Bucknell 7.44 75
3. Marquette 14.48 28
14. Davidson 7.39 77
7. Illinois 13.25 40
10. Colorado 12.38 44
2. Miami (FL) 17.18 13
15. Pacific 3.32 123
MIDWEST SCHOOL SRS SRS RANKING
1. Louisville 24.29 3
16. NC A&T/Liberty -6.81/-8.90 253/273
8. Colorado State 14.46 29
9. Missouri 16.14 20
5. Oklahoma State 16.22 19
12. Oregon 13.12 42
4. St. Louis 14.72 25
13. New Mexico State 5.92 96
6. Memphis 12.62 43
11. Middle Tennessee/St. Mary’s (CA) 11.74/14.73 48/24
3. Michigan State 18.62 12
14. Valparaiso 7.41 76
7. Creighton 16.83 15
10. Cincinnati 14.75 23
2. Duke 21.91 4
15. Albany (NY) -1.04 175
SOUTH SCHOOL SRS SRS RANKING
1. Kansas 21.21 6
16. Western Kentucky -0.84 171
8. North Carolina 14.91 21
9. Villanova 10.99 52
5. Virginia Commonwealth 16.50 18
12. Akron 9.72 60
4. Michigan 20.22 8
13. South Dakota State 2.59 128
6. UCLA 13.73 37
11. Minnesota 16.80 17
3. Florida 24.70 2
14. Northwestern State 0.92 147
7. San Diego State 13.98 34
10. Oklahoma 11.96 47
2. Georgetown 16.81 16
15. Florida Gulf Coast 1.05 144
WEST SCHOOL SRS SRS RANKING
1. Gonzaga 21.56 5
16. Southern -3.02 202
8. Pittsburgh 19.65 9
9. Wichita State 13.20 41
5. Wisconsin 19.38 11
12. Mississippi 14.55 27
4. Kansas State 13.82 35
13. Boise State/La Salle 10.52/9.98 54/56
6. Arizona 17.02 14
11. Belmont 11.00 50
3. New Mexico 14.44 30
14. Harvard 3.97 117
7. Notre Dame 14.44 31
10. Iowa State 13.99 33
2. Ohio State 20.49 7
15. Iona 4.53 109

Sports-reference.com calculates the SRS for all 347 Division I schools here. In fact, you will see some schools with a good rating that didn’t make the tournament at all, like Kentucky (SRS=26) and Iowa (32).

Photos: tyrabuss.com / sport-seasons.com / amazon.com / rugsusa.com

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 182 other followers

%d bloggers like this: