Blog Archives

NFL: Opening Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX and 2014 Playoff Berth Odds

Super Bowl XLIX (49) Will Be Played In Arizona, And The Opening Favorites Are The Denver Broncos

Super Bowl XLIX (49) Will Be Played In Arizona, And The Opening Favorites Are The Denver Broncos

Who is going to win Super Bowl XLIX, and who’s in the running? Two sources below have some differences, but they agree on two things, most importantly.

The top four teams are the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots.

And both say it will be the Broncos who win the big one.

But boy do they disagree on some other possibilities. First, though, let’s get a rundown on the three lists below and where they came from.

As with last season’s (2013) early predictions, Sports List of the Day turned again to the Prediction Machine at predictionmachine.com. The folks over at PM have already played out the entire 2014 NFL season – 50,000 times!

The result? Super Bowl win and playoff berth percentages, sorted for all 32 teams in the top two lists, respectively.

The third list are the straight up betting odds out of Las Vegas, from Bovada.

PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING SUPER BOWL XLIX

  TEAM SUPER BOWL WIN % PLAYOFF BERTH %
1. Denver Broncos 25.1 94.2
2. Seattle Seahawks 22.6 85.2
3. New Orleans Saints 15.8 89.6
4. New England Patriots 8.8 84.1
5. San Francisco 49ers 4.0 47.9
6. Indianapolis Colts 3.3 68.6
7. Green Bay Packers 3.1 61.8
8. Cincinnati Bengals 2.3 55.2
9. New York Giants 2.2 45.7
10. Philadelphia Eagles 2.1 46.5
11. San Diego Chargers 1.7 46.6
12. Washington Redskins 1.2 35.7
13. Houston Texans 1.1 48.8
13. Arizona Cardinals 1.1 27.7
15. Baltimore Ravens 1.0 43.7
16. Carolina Panthers 0.8 25.4
17. Detroit Lions 0.5 33.3
17. Minnesota Vikings 0.5 25.6
19. Atlanta Falcons 0.4 19.6
19. Miami Dolphins 0.4 26.1
19. St. Louis Rams 0.4 15.6
19. Pittsburgh Steelers 0.4 35.3
23. Chicago Bears 0.2 18.1
23. Kansas City Chiefs 0.2 16.1
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.2 16.5
23. Cleveland Browns 0.2 31.9
23. Tennessee Titans 0.2 18.1
28. Buffalo Bills 0.1 9.1
28. New York Jets 0.1 12.2
30. Dallas Cowboys 0.0 5.9
30. Jacksonville Jaguars 0.0 5.9
30. Oakland Raiders 0.0 4.0

*

PERCENT CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS

  TEAM PLAYOFF BERTH % SUPER BOWL WIN %
1. Denver Broncos 94.2 25.1
2. New Orleans Saints 89.6 15.8
3. Seattle Seahawks 85.2 22.6
4. New England Patriots 84.1 8.8
5. Indianapolis Colts 68.6 3.3
6. Green Bay Packers 61.8 3.1
7. Cincinnati Bengals 55.2 2.3
8. Houston Texans 48.8 1.1
9. San Francisco 49ers 47.9 4.0
10. San Diego Chargers 46.6 1.7
11. Philadelphia Eagles 46.5 2.1
12. New York Giants 45.7 2.2
13. Baltimore Ravens 43.7 1.0
14. Washington Redskins 35.7 1.2
15. Pittsburgh Steelers 35.3 0.4
16. Detroit Lions 33.3 0.5
17. Cleveland Browns 31.9 0.2
18. Arizona Cardinals 27.7 1.1
19. Miami Dolphins 26.1 0.4
20. Minnesota Vikings 25.6 0.5
21. Carolina Panthers 25.4 0.8
22. Atlanta Falcons 19.6 0.4
23. Chicago Bears 18.1 0.2
23. Tennessee Titans 18.1 0.2
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.5 0.2
26. Kansas City Chiefs 16.1 0.2
27. St. Louis Rams 15.6 0.4
28. New York Jets 12.2 0.1
29. Buffalo Bills 9.1 0.1
30. Dallas Cowboys 5.9 0.0
30. Jacksonville Jaguars 5.9 0.0
32. Oakland Raiders 4.0 0.0

*

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIX (bovada.lv)

  TEAM ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL
1. Denver Broncos 11-2
2. Seattle Seahawks 6-1
3. New England Patriots 7-1
4. San Francisco 49ers 8-1
5. New Orleans Saints 10-1
5. Green Bay Packers 10-1
7. Philadelphia Eagles 20-1
7. Chicago Bears 20-1
9. Indianapolis Colts 22-1
10. Detroit Lions 33-1
11. Cincinnati Bengals 40-1
11. San Diego Chargers 40-1
11. Arizona Cardinals 40-1
11. Baltimore Ravens 40-1
11. Atlanta Falcons 40-1
11. Pittsburgh Steelers 40-1
17. New York Giants 50-1
17. Carolina Panthers 50-1
17. Kansas City Chiefs 50-1
17. Dallas Cowboys 50-1
21. Washington Redskins 66-1
21. Houston Texans 66-1
21. Miami Dolphins 66-1
21. St. Louis Rams 66-1
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66-1
26. Minnesota Vikings 75-1
26. Cleveland Browns 75-1
26. New York Jets 75-1
29. Tennessee Titans 100-1
29. Buffalo Bills 100-1
31. Oakland Raiders 200-1
32. Jacksonville Jaguars 250-1

*

Odds provided solely for entertainment purposes.

Photo: boards.sportslogos.net

Super Bowl Champions with the Worst Records the Season Before

The St. Louis Rams Went From 4-12 Under Tony Banks To Super Bowl Champions Under Kurt Warner In One Season

The St. Louis Rams Went From 4-12 Under Tony Banks To Super Bowl Champions Under Kurt Warner In One Season

Getting psyched up for football? Oh hell yeah!

Here’s a good one for you – and maybe even one that provides a little hope for your team this upcoming season no matter what is expected of them…or, I’m sorry, maybe not, as you will see.

Today’s list ranks every Super Bowl winner by their record the season before – from worst to best. I’m sorting by W-L percentage, from lowest to highest, but have also provided each team’s prior season’s playoff result.

And look at the 1999 St. Louis Rams who found a miracle in Kurt Warner. The Rams went from 4-12  (.250) under QB Tony Banks in 1998 to winning it all under MVP Warner in his first full season in 1999. Warner played in one game in 1998 for the Rams after playing several seasons in the AFL (Arena Football League).

Not far off the pace – and a similar situation, at least in terms of a quarterback who came from nowhere – were the 2001 Champion New England Patriots, who were 5-11 (.313) the season before under Drew Bledsoe. Tom Brady squeezed himself into his first (and only) pro game that season, but came back in 2001 after Bledsoe was injured in Game 2. Brady started the next 14 games and the rest is history (legendary, really), as five Super Bowls and three rings can attest.

After backing up Steve DeBerg all of 1979 and taking over the San Francisco 49er offense halfway through a 6-10 (.375) season in 1980, Joe Montana led the Niners to their first of five Super Bowl titles in 1981.

Every single other team – 45 other winners – had W-L percentages of .500 (four) or more (the other 41) the season before.

So, if your team was under .500 last season – and that means you, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and St. Louis Rams, that you have a little more than a six percent chance of winning the Big Game this go-round. Hey, though, it’s happened, and that means it can happen again.

What about Super Bowl champs with the worst records THAT season – the year they won. Well, check it out. That might yield a little hope in the midst of 2014.

SUPER BOWL WINNER SEASON SUPER BOWL DATE W L T W-L PCT PLAYOFFS
1. St. Louis Rams 1999 XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000 4 12 0 .250 No Playoffs
2. New England Patriots 2001 XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002 5 11 0 .313 No Playoffs
3. San Francisco 49ers 1981 XVI Jan. 24, 1982 6 10 0 .375 No Playoffs
4. Washington Redskins 1982 XVII Jan. 30, 1983 8 8 0 .500 No Playoffs
4. Baltimore Ravens 2000 XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 8 8 0 .500 No Playoffs
4. New York Giants 2007 XLII Feb. 3, 2008 8 8 0 .500 Lost NFC Wild Card
4. New Orleans Saints 2009 XLIV Feb. 7, 2010 8 8 0 .500 No Playoffs
8. Oakland Raiders 1980 XV Jan. 25, 1981 9 7 0 .563 No Playoffs
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2002 XXXVII Jan. 26, 2003 9 7 0 .563 Lost NFC Wild Card
8. New England Patriots 2003 XXXVIII Feb. 1, 2004 9 7 0 .563 No Playoffs
11. New York Jets 1968 III Jan. 12, 1969 8 5 1 .607 No Playoffs (AFL)
11. Baltimore Colts 1970 V Jan. 17, 1971 8 5 1 .607 No Playoffs
13. San Francisco 49ers 1984 XIX Jan. 20, 1985 10 6 0 .625 Lost NFC Championship
13. Chicago Bears 1985 XX Jan. 26, 1986 10 6 0 .625 Lost NFC Championship
13. New York Giants 1986 XXI Jan. 25, 1987 10 6 0 .625 Lost NFC Division Round
13. San Francisco 49ers 1989 XXIV Jan. 28, 1990 10 6 0 .625 Won Super Bowl
13. Washington Redskins 1991 XXVI Jan. 26, 1992 10 6 0 .625 Lost NFC Division Round
13. San Francisco 49ers 1994 XXIX Jan. 29, 1995 10 6 0 .625 Lost NFC Championship
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 2008 XLIII Feb. 1, 2009 10 6 0 .625 Lost AFC Wild Card
13. New York Giants 2011 XLVI Feb. 5, 2012 10 6 0 .625 No Playoffs
21. Pittsburgh Steelers 1978 XIII Jan. 21, 1979 9 5 0 .643 Lost AFC Division Round
22. Dallas Cowboys 1992 XXVII Jan. 31, 1993 11 5 0 .688 Lost NFC Division Round
22. Green Bay Packers 1996 XXXI Jan. 26, 1997 11 5 0 .688 Lost NFC Championship
22. Green Bay Packers 2010 XLV Feb. 6, 2011 11 5 0 .688 Lost NFC Wild Card
22. Seattle Seahawks 2013 XLVIII Feb. 2, 2014 11 5 0 .688 Lost NFC Division Round
26. Dallas Cowboys 1971 VI Jan. 16, 1972 10 4 0 .714 Lost Super Bowl
26. Pittsburgh Steelers 1974 IX Jan. 12, 1975 10 4 0 .714 Lost AFC Division Round
28. Washington Redskins 1987 XXII Jan. 31, 1988 12 4 0 .750 Lost NFC Championship
28. New York Giants 1990 XXV Jan. 27, 1991 12 4 0 .750 Lost NFC Division Round
28. Dallas Cowboys 1995 XXX Jan. 28, 1996 12 4 0 .750 Lost NFC Championship
28. Denver Broncos 1998 XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999 12 4 0 .750 Won Super Bowl
28. Baltimore Ravens 2012 XLVII Feb. 3, 2013 12 4 0 .750 Lost NFC Championship
28. Green Bay Packers 1966 I Jan. 15, 1967 10 3 1 .750 Won NFL Championship
28. Miami Dolphins 1972 VII Jan. 14, 1973 10 3 1 .750 Lost Super Bowl
28. Pittsburgh Steelers 1975 X Jan. 18, 1976 10 3 1 .750 Won Super Bowl
36. Oakland Raiders 1976 XI Jan. 9, 1977 11 3 0 .786 Lost AFC Championship
36. Dallas Cowboys 1977 XII Jan. 15, 1978 11 3 0 .786 Lost NFC Division Round
38. Dallas Cowboys 1993 XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994 13 3 0 .813 Won Super Bowl
38. Denver Broncos 1997 XXXII Jan. 25, 1998 13 3 0 .813 Lost AFC Division Round
40. Green Bay Packers 1967 II Jan. 14, 1968 12 2 0 .857 Won Super Bowl
40. Kansas City Chiefs 1969 IV Jan. 11, 1970 12 2 0 .857 Lost Division Tiebreaker (AFL)
42. San Francisco 49ers 1988 XXIII Jan. 22, 1989 13 2 0 .867 Lost NFC Division Round
43. Pittsburgh Steelers 1979 XIV Jan. 20, 1980 14 2 0 .875 Won Super Bowl
43. New England Patriots 2004 XXXIX Feb. 6, 2005 14 2 0 .875 Won Super Bowl
43. Indianapolis Colts 2006 XLI Feb. 4, 2007 14 2 0 .875 Lost AFC Division Round
46. Los Angeles Raiders 1983 XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 8 1 0 .889 Lost AFC Division Round
47. Pittsburgh Steelers 2005 XL Feb. 5, 2006 15 1 0 .938 Lost AFC Championship
48. Miami Dolphins 1973 VIII Jan. 13, 1974 14 0 0 1.000 Won Super Bowl

Photos: amazon.com / espn.com

NFL Draft: No. 1 Picks That Went on to Win a Super Bowl or NFL Championship

In 2004, Eli Manning Was Drafted By The San Diego Chargers, Then Quickly Traded To The New York Giants. He's The Last No. 1 Pick To Win A Super Bowl

In 2004, Eli Manning Was Drafted By The San Diego Chargers, Then Quickly Traded To The New York Giants. He’s The Last No. 1 Pick To Win A Super Bowl

Nineteen No. 1 NFL Draft picks went on to win a title (out of 79) – that’s not great, but not a bad percentage either (24%). The last to do it was drafted a decade ago, Eli Manning.

  YEAR DRAFTED PLAYER POS. SCHOOL DRAFTED BY SEASON TITLE (TEAM/S)
1. 1945 Charley Trippi HB Georgia Chicago Cardinals 1947 NFL Champion (Cardinals)
2. 1949 Chuck Bednarik C, LB Penn Philadelphia Eagles 1949, 1960 NFL Champion (Eagles)
3. 1955 George Shaw QB Oregon Baltimore Colts 1958 NFL Champion (Colts)
4. 1957 Paul Hornung HB Notre Dame Green Bay Packers 1961, 1962, 1965 NFL Champion (Packers), 1966 Super Bowl I Champion (Packers)
5. 1967 Bubba Smith DE Michigan State Baltimore Colts 1970 Super Bowl V Champion (Colts)
6. 1970 Terry Bradshaw QB Louisiana Tech Pittsburgh Steelers 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979 Super Bowl IX, X, XIII, XIV Champion (Steelers)
7. 1971 Jim Plunkett QB Stanford New England Patriots 1980 Super Bowl XV Champion (Oakland Raiders), 1983 Super Bowl XVIII (L.A. Raiders)
8. 1973 John Matuszak DE Tampa Houston Oilers 1976, 1980 Super Bowl XI, XV Champion (Oakland Raiders),
9. 1974 Ed Jones DE Tennessee State Dallas Cowboys 1977 Super Bowl XII Champion (Cowboys)
10. 1981 George Rogers RB South Carolina New Orleans Saints 1987 Super Bowl XXII Champion (Washington Redskins)
11. 1983 John Elway QB Stanford Baltimore Colts 1997, 1998 Super Bowl XXXII, XXXIII Champion (Denver Broncos)
12. 1989 Troy Aikman QB UCLA Dallas Cowboys 1992, 1993, 1995 Super Bowl XXVII, XXVIII, XXX Champion (Cowboys)
13. 1991 Russell Maryland DT Miami (FL) Dallas Cowboys 1992, 1993, 1995 Super Bowl XXVII, XXVIII, XXX Champion (Cowboys)
14. 1993 Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State New England Patriots 2001 Super Bowl XXXVI Champion (Patriots)
15. 1996 Keyshawn Johnson WR USC New York Jets 2002 Super Bowl XXXVII Champion (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
16. 1997 Orlando Pace T Ohio State St. Louis Rams 1999 Super Bowl XXXIV Champion (Rams)
17. 1998 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts 2006 Super Bowl XLI Champion (Colts)
18. 2002 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans 2011 Super Bowl XLVI Champion (New York Giants)
19. 2004 Eli Manning QB Ole Miss San Diego Chargers 2007, 2011 Super Bowl XLII, XLVI Champion (New York Giants)

Photo: Tim Heitman/US Presswire via nfl.com

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 149 other followers

%d bloggers like this: